They play all candidates. All are leviathans. Everyone wants the same reward. One can have.
And now comes the fight to the death - or at least a little competition for the Grand Prix virile American League Cy Young. Justin Verlander pitches Thursday to the Detroit Tigers. CC Sabathia will be on Friday by the New York Yankees. Jered Weaver pitched on Saturday for the Angels in Los Angeles. They are one of the most hotly contested races in prices in recent years, a sprint of three men-played by the excellence of the entire panel and can be decided by the regional knowledge. Sabathia hails from the eastern, central and western Weaver Verlander, each division with a voting bloc that tends to skew toward what he knows best.
This is an attempt to wipe out any bias or favoritism, and the use of objective measures to the side of the race so far - and predicts where it can go. I came with 15 categories, all the elementary steps of advanced measures of numbers and peer inside the game and try to combine the statistical and common sense.
Without further ado ...
WAS
Sabathia
2.81
Verlander
2.30
Weaver
1.78
Analysis: After Felix Hernandez (notes) won last year with a 13-12 record, it became clear that the gains and losses are no longer the largest Cy Young, Judge. It may be the ERA, a statistical error, yes - most of which is dependent on the defense - but which, taken in conjunction with more sophisticated measures are a good start. And now the best in the AL is not even close.
Winner: Weaver
FIP / SIERA
Sabathia
2.58/3.08
Verlander
2.73/2.77
Weaver
2.58/3.37
Analysis: Two of these indicators. Fielding Independent Pitching IFJ represents. It evolved from the theory of Voros McCracken that the record out on the balls put into play is more a function of luck than skill. Therefore, the only thing you can control are the pitchers to bat, walks and runs home. FIP has these three statistics and calculates a number that sabermetricians say is a more precise explanation of what a pitcher can do and must do what he did.
SIERA - Interactive Skill-ERA - was developed by the guys kidding "Revenge of the Nerds" .. FIP is like on steroids, giving more weight to the pitchers prohibited by promoting the artists and specialists flyball grounder adjusting the raw data from the stage of the player's home.
Verlander FIP experiencing a high rate of home runs high (compared to others), while penalizing SIERA Sabathia and Weaver for his chance in longballs. Since the results are very close, and because these measures are as predictive as they are rewarding performance to date, it is fair to give a full vote of the three, although the number Verlander are the most of a hair.
Winner: Push
Win-Loss Record
Sabathia
16-6
Verlander
16-5
Weaver
14-5
Analysis: things again, and all of them are good. Everyone has a lot of different ways to reach the magic number 20, which could serve as a tie-break for voters who do not want to plumb the depths of advanced statistics.
Winner: Who has access to 20
Rate Barré
Sabathia
8.28 / 9 IP
Verlander
8.90 / 9 IP
Weaver
7.64 / 9 IP
Analysis: strikeouts are still very important for each pitcher, especially headlines that can be stacked and are made with high total rounds. Rate Sabathia is the third highest of his career. Weaver is back at his career average after an exceptional 2010, when he was sitting at 9.35 to 9. Nor can match Verlander, whose game batting her overwhelming substance.
Winner: Verlander
Percentage rola
Sabathia
46.7 percent
Verlander
41.4 percent
Weaver
34.1 percent
Analysis: Less ground balls go to the extra-base hits. Therefore, ground balls are more desirable than balloons. Sabathia is the closest thing to a pitcher ground the three ball with his shift and the cursor, in particular, led to two figures to land the most part.
Winner: Sabathia
Left on base percentage
Sabathia
73.8 percent
Verlander
77.4 percent
Weaver
84.1 percent
Analysis: The most underrated September Weaver is the leader of the league in ERA by a wide margin. The rate of blocking is second to Josh Beckett (Notes) (and the third and fourth Ryan Vogel Song (Notes), and Jair Jurrjens (notes), two pitchers, exceeding the FIPS of race). This increases the number of regression at Sabathia and Verlander, but it is not fair to punish him for something that has happened and so heavily contributed to its success this season.
Winner: Weaver
BABIP
Sabathia 0298
0232 Verlander
0248 Review
Analysis: babip (batting average balls in play) is the second son of the theory of McCracken. Babip league average is usually around 0300. McCracken was the biggest criticism that some of the pitcher does not have the ability to cause the weak link, and is likely to reduce their babip. It may be true, but I came into this season, Verlander BABIPs whole season went as follows: 0.294, 0.279, 0.296, 0.319, 0.286. In other words: As good as he is, it does not hurt to be lucky sometimes.
Winner: Verlander
Answer Statistics
Sabathia
.250/.313/.389
Verlander
.195/.271/.381
Weaver
.235/.308/.304
Analysis: Forget Sabathia and focus on the two lines. Shit. It's tough. Hitters with runners in scoring position Verlander fell for extra bases ... but can not get on base more than 27 percent of the time. Review limits to almost all one ... but almost 31 per cent to the base, a significant difference.
He threw on Twitter to see the answers there, and it was almost in the middle. I'm still torn. But knowing that does not always Singles runners score from second, but extra-base hits to do, in this case, I take the pitcher throws the limiting of large, even if it means free baserunner or two.
Winner: Weaver
Full Games
Sabathia
3 (a shutout)
Verlander
4 (2 shutouts)
Weaver
4 (2 shutouts)
Analysis: difficulty going to Verlander. He and Weaver each threw a complete game against Texas. Verlander other was against Colorado, while Weaver was against the woeful Seattle. His coming shutouts against two brutal crimes, Seattle and Oakland, and Verlander bleached Toronto and Cleveland.
Winner: Verlander
IP
Sabathia
182 2 / 3 (7.31 to start)
Verlander
188 (7.52 per start)
Weaver
176 2 / 3 (7.36 per start)
Analysis: More than 7 ½ innings to start is a huge amount reserved for the elite elite. Roy Halladay (Notes) he did last season. Few others come close. If you can not keep Verlander is one of the small feathers on his cap that could help decide the vote closely.
Winner: Verlander
Vs. elite teams in the AL
GS WL IP HR ER HR BB K ERA FIP
Sabathia 4-6 12 4.34 83 87 44 40 27 68 4 3.16
Verlander 2-2 8 2.78 58 1 / 3 44 20 18 15 51 4 3.11
Weaver 4-3 8 2.73 56 42 17 17 13 53 6 3.40
Analysis: I am defined by the elite teams in the AL, such as Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, Tampa Bay and Texas. Although this is a group that may well torpedo Sabathia nomination because of his age, do not forget his FIP. Lack of runs significantly the gate, but it's worth considering the concert begins, 50 percent more games against these teams than the other two. Fair or not, made a cross-plate runs against Sabathia and Weaver and Verlander The numbers are essentially the same, they can share.
Winner: Verlander and Weaver
WAR (FanGraphs / baseball-reference)
Sabathia
5.9/5.0
Verlander
5.6/6.3
Weaver
5.5/6.4
Analysis: Some of the more likely voters will use sabermetrically WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as their star. FanGraphs and baseball-reference, the two main items of baseball statistics, each calculate their own version of WAR. FanGraphs bases its FIP innings and struck, and rank Sabathia-Verlander-Weaver. Baseball-Reference uses a different formula and comes back to a conclusion: Weaver, Verlander-Sabathia - Sabathia and ranks fourth in the AL reality other than Beckett.
If I start talking vs WAR WAR FanGraphs Baseball-Reference, I might as well start playing Dungeons and Dragons. We'll just play this one safe.
Winner: Push
Calendar remaining
TBR @ KCR Sabathia OAK @ BAL BOS @ BAL BOS @ TBR @ TOR Mar
Verlander min @ @ CLE TB @ KC MIN @ CWS CLE @ OAK BAL CLE
Review TEX @ TOR @ NYY CWS @ BAL @ TOR Wed min TEX
Analysis: This is based on the pitch every fifth game in the rest of the season, which of course may vary depending on the pedestal run as a team and pick up any number of factors.
If so, Weaver made the Yankees and Texas twice. Sabathia goes to Toronto and Boston play twice. The best action Verlander faces are ... Kansas City. Really. Minnesota is 13th in the AL in OPS, 12th in Oakland, the 10th White Sox Cleveland ninth, Tampa Bay eighth, seventh, and Baltimore's sixth king.
Winner: Verlander
The game after a loss of team
GS WL IP HR ER HR BB K ERA FIP
Sabathia 8-1 9 2.77 68 1 / 3 57 24 21 17 52 1 2.61
Verlander 3.12 1.69 17 133 86 29 25 23 129 9 2.66
Weaver 7-2 10 2.22 73 55 18 18 18 61 5 3.16
Analysis: It is here, I think that Justin Verlander will win the Cy Young. All three pitchers have an incredible following their team loses, but Verlander has been in this position during the more than two thirds of its inception.
In this case, the FIP stands for Forget it, thank you. Because the key figures Verlander of his sleeves are 133 in total in 17 starts after a loss Tigers - 7.82 per sleeve. Verlander average of nearly eight innings a start after a defeat, many of which required wear Bullpen Detroit Verlander long excursions are even more imperative.
During his 12 wins, three losing streaks Verlander arrested and prevented the other nine. In the five games the Tigers lost - three on his record, not two decisions - Verlander ERA was 2.95.
This is just a number. If Sabathia or weaver # 5 start was just as bad as Verlander is, perhaps they would have the kind of numbers, too. But they do not. And therefore, if a voter needs a tiebreaker, it may very well be it.
Winner: Verlander
Funding Team
Sabathia
Very
Verlander
Very
Weaver
Very
Analysis: Everyone deserves. That's why we do this exercise. Without Sabathia,. The team of the Yankees in the playoffs are not, so they will pay silly money for a pitcher in his 30s when he chooses his contract this offseason without Weaver. Hells Angels are not a team in the playoffs, they can not be with him. But it has stabilized the rotation and is a little over a year away from free agency jackpot.
Without Verlander, Tigers are not a playoff team, not even close. He deserves MVP votes. All three of them. Verlander but it is better this season, winning seven categories, and Weaver Sabathia four one.
Cy Young is his to lose.
Winner: Verlander
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